Illinois is still in search of its first win of the 2020 season. Minnesota, too. The Illini and Gophers will square off at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Memorial Stadium, and one will finally get in the win column. Beat writer Scott Richey breaks down the matchups and provides all the information you need to know:
Minnesota redshirt junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim leads the Big Ten in both rushing yards (347) and touchdowns (six) through two games.
THREE BIG STORYLINES
Higher stakes
A truncated eight-game regular season schedule didn’t leave any room for the Big Ten to deal with the situation Wisconsin finds itself in facing a second canceled game this weekend. It also didn’t allow much room for teams that get off to a slow start.
Two weeks in, a quarter of the season has already been played. And two weeks in, Illinois is still trying to notch its first win of the 2020 season.
“Yes, there’s a sense of urgency — especially when you’re two games in the hole — to get your first win,” Illinois coach Lovie Smith said. “You get your first win, though, if you play your best ball. That’s what we’re trying to do with whatever players are available.”
The Illini, of course, won’t have all their players available for Saturday’s game against Minnesota. Two reported positive COVID-19 cases last week and subsequent contract tracing has Illinois down more than a dozen players.
“Nothing is guaranteed,” Smith said. “There’s a sense of urgency even if this was 2019. You play a game, there’s a sense of urgency to play your best ball. That’s what’s on our mind as much as anything. In order to play our best ball, we have to take care of business. We have to follow the proper protocol to avoid the COVID virus as much as we possibly can to have a chance to practice to have a chance to play better on the weekend. We understand what we need to do.”
A new (temporary) QB1?
Lovie Smith was, per usual, less than forthcoming about the status of Matt Robinson earlier this week, saying only that the redshirt sophomore quarterback was getting better after going down with an ankle injury early in last Saturday’s 31-24 loss against Purdue.
Even if Robinson is at full go against Minnesota, however, it wasn’t clear what that would mean for Illinois’ quarterback depth chart. Not after Coran Taylor had a breakout performance, of sorts, last Saturday in the first meaningful playing time of his career.
Taylor had his share of mistakes against the Boilermakers. Two fumbles lost and two interceptions didn’t help the Illini’s cause.
“Decision-making is the first thing we’re going to correct,” Illinois offensive coordinator Rod Smith said. “We can’t throw the ball into the other team’s hands like we did. We can’t lay it on the ground and just basically give up points. We can’t do that.
“From a decision-making process, that’s just reps. That’s just continuing to learn what we’re doing and understand how a defense is trying to play you and know when it’s a good football decision, and sometimes you’ve just got to throw the ball away. You’ve got to eat it and live to play the next down.”
Finding the end zone
Several lengthy touchdown droughts were snapped last week against Purdue. Illinois running back Mike Epstein scored for the first time since 2018. Daniel Imatorbhebhe, a graduate transfer tight end from Southern California, hadn’t scored since 2016 before he hauled in a touchdown pass last week.
Brian Hightower was in the same boat. The transfer wide receiver from Miami last scored in 2018. His first career catch was also his first career touchdown — and his last of the latter for the Hurricanes.
“I hadn’t been in the end zone in like two years,” Hightower said. “It was a sweet feeling. I just looked up to my mom in the stands, and it felt good to see her see me win.”
Hightower had as many receptions against Purdue (four) as he had in his lone full season at Miami in 2018, and his 97 receiving yards was easily a new single-game career high. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Californian was a big play threat for Taylor in the Illinois passing game, and he ranks fifth nationally at 24.6 yards per reception.
TWO KEY MATCHUPS
Illinois defense vs. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim
Minnesota still has the Tanner Morgan-to-Rashod Bateman connection in its passing game, but the Gophers have been more than fine letting Ibrahim carry a significant load. The redshirt junior running back leads the Big Ten in both rushing yards (347) and touchdowns (six) through two games.
“We don’t have to wonder if he’s going to get the ball,” Lovie Smith said. “He has great balance, vision. He’s got good quickness, size. Just a real good football player with great instincts as a running back. With that big offensive line in front of him and the commitment to the run that they have, it’s a challenge. He’s gotten yards against anyone.”
Illinois has struggled mightily in pass defense the first two weeks of the season. Its ability to slow down opposing run games, however, could obviously come in handy. The Illini rank 14th nationally, allowing just 3.12 yards per carry.
Coran Taylor vs. Minnesota defense
Taylor provided a much-needed spark for the Illinois offense after it got summarily shut down in Week 1 at Wisconsin. Part of that spark was the Peoria native’s ability to improvise, extend plays with his feet and, in some instances, find open receivers downfield for big gains.
“Sometimes what makes those guys really good football players is their ability to take chances, ability to try plays or try certain things maybe other guys wouldn’t,” Rod Smith said. “Sometimes it works for you, and sometimes it doesn’t. The key is, how do you play within structure of the offense? That’s the key. How do you play within structure and do what we ask you to do though a certain period of time in the course of a play? Once that breaks down, then it’s on him.”
Taylor’s impositions, should he get the start, of course, could keep a struggling Minnesota defense off balance. The Gophers, who rank last in the Big Ten in total defense giving up 578 yards per game, will already be without their play-caller after defensive coordinator Joe Rossi tested positive for COVID-19.
ONE STAT THAT MATTERS
309.5
There are 113 FBS teams playing this fall. Illinois and Minnesota are tied at 104th nationally for allowing 309.5 passing yards per game. The Gophers are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.3 percent of their passes. That included Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa completing 74.3 percent of his passes last week. The Illini, of course, saw Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz go 20 of 21 and Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell complete 29 of 35 passes. Just to note, that’s a combined 87.5 completion percentage.
ILLINOIS WILL WIN IF …
… slowing down Mohamed Ibrahim and the Minnesota run game doesn’t mean Gophers’ quarterback Tanner Morgan just picks apart the Illini secondary instead. That fairly experienced group of cornerbacks and safeties (plus the linebackers in coverage) has been the weak defensive link through two games and a weak link teams will continue to exploit this season if wide receivers and tight ends remain markedly wide open.
MINNESOTA WILL WIN IF …
… it can fix some of its own rather similar defensive struggles. The Gophers got torched in consecutive weeks by Michigan and Maryland. Minnesota’s rebuilt defense is either hoping Matt Robinson returns (certainly didn’t mind facing him last season) or Coran Taylor can’t get a hold of his turnover trouble and provides some bonus possessions to an offense that is clearly the stronger unit in the northernmost stretches of the Big Ten.
THE PICK
Minnesota 42, Illinois 33
A shootout is the safe pick when two teams with clear defensive issues face off. The Gophers just have a bit more known firepower on the offensive side of the ball. As good as Taylor was in stretches last week, he also showed he’s a bit of a liability with the ball in his hands. That’s what kept him at fourth string on the depth chart through two-plus seasons.
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